There are essential factors contributing to the trajectories of India and China. First, these emerging powers have two opposing political systems. The People’s Republic of China is Communist, whereas India is a democracy. Both countries started to emerge as global powers after the end of the Cold War. China grew rapidly due to its population, economic growth, development, etc. To understand how India and China got to this level, it is essential to look back at history. India and the People’s Republic of China are two emerging powers in the continent of Asia due to their economic and military trajectories. Different factors contribute to the rise in both countries, such as economic development, etc.

    China’s economic development occurred under two leaders: Deng Xiaoping and Mao Zedong.  Under Mao’s leadership, he established a centralized planned economy, leading to the first five-year plan known as the Great Leap Forward. “In Mao’s era, the Chinese economy was under duress and highly unstable.” (Khalid Manzoor Butt and Sarah Sajid) China’s economy was atrocious under the leadership of Mao Zedong due to the lack of stability. The agricultural innovations did not benefit this sector at all. The result was a decline in crop yields.

   “Grain production fell sharply, and hundreds of thousands died from forced labor and exposure to the elements on irrigation construction projects and communal farming.” (Great Leap Forward: What it Was, Goals and Impact) This was detrimental to the farmers because they had no choice but to work only. This was not beneficial for grain production. “Famine quickly set across the countryside, resulting in millions more death.” (Great Leap Forward: What it Was, Goals and Impact) This backfired on China because it resulted in exaggerating death among the Chinese in the countryside. Industrialization was a flop because the steel produced was a flop. “The backyard steel industry produced largely useless, low-quality pig iron.” (Great Leap Forward: What it Was, Goals and Impact) Based on the information provided, the steel produced was not of very high quality. China’s population was getting out of control because the country was facing a population boom.

      China began to take off under the leadership of Chinese Premier Deng Xiaoping. Deng Xiaoping took a different approach from Mao Zedong, such as introducing significant reforms in the economic system. Deng introduced the one-child policy in 1979 to tackle’s China’s overpopulation. “In 1979, Deng’s government ended China’s Soviet-based Five-Year Plan that focused on heavy industry, like steel mills and transformed it into producing consumer goods.” (The Economic Reforms of Deng Xiaoping) This is one of Deng’s reforms in the economic System. “The state still owned the land but let the peasants lived and work the land as long as they were producing and paying their taxes.” (The Economic Reforms of Deng Xiaoping)

     This would have a positive impact on China because later, there would be continuous growth in food production. China had opened most of its economy, increasing the GNP twofold. “Under the administration of Deng Xiaoping, who came to power after the death of Mao Zedong, the modernization of the PLA was made one of the main goals in the Communist Party of China’s long-term planning.” (Modernization of the People’s Liberation Army) Modernizing the army was a priority that would later continue under Xi Jinping. Until today, China continues to rise in the 21st century.

   India’s trajectory is different from China’s. After gaining independence from Great Britain, India’s first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru prioritized the economic development of India. “India set up the Planning Commission in 1950 to oversee the entire range of planning, including resource allocation, implementation and appraisal of five-year plans.” (A Short History of India’s economy) The Planning Commission was established under Nehru with responsibilities. The first five-year plan in India resulted in an economic growth rate of 3.6%. The annual target was 2.1%. Industrialization and public infrastructure, such as dams, were on the agenda. However, this came with economic challenges because “Food shortages exacerbated, and inflation spiked.

     More economic challenges were ahead after the death of Nehru and his successor Lal Bahadur Shastri. However, India’s economy would progress in the 21^st century due to the reforms made by Prime Minister PV Rao in the 1990s. These reforms include deregulation, privatization, free trade, etc.

     The Chinese economy continues to grow rapidly in the 21^st century. According to Nicholas Kristoff: “China is the world fastest growing economy, with what may be the fastest growing military budget.” (Kristoff pg 1) The Chinese economy went from 14.3% in 1992 to 3% in 2022. As described by Kristoff, China’s economy is still the fastest growing but was impacted by the Coronavirus pandemic and President Xi’s Zero COVID policy. “An obviously immediate consequence is the plummeting number of physical exchanges between China and the rest of the world, including both tourist and business exchange.” (Garcia Herrero).  This is one example of President Xi’s zero COVID policy negatively impacting the Chinese economy. These restrictions include mobility which has negatively impacted ports and highways because they were operating inefficiently.

         China played a significant role in the global economy at the end of the Cold War. One example was the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997. “When faced the possibility of devaluing its currency, China chooses to maintain its pegged exchange rate.” (Noris). This was beneficial for the Chinese because according to the author, this helped advert a problem or issue about competitive currency devaluation. “China has provided over USD 4 billion in aid and offered export credit and emergency medicine, in addition to its decision.” (Norris) The Chinese have been economically engaged internationally. Another example was the stimulus it provided in the 2008 financial crisis.

       During the post 2008 financial crisis, China created the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank due to the failure of global institutions to “make fundamental organizational reforms that would have accommodated a greater role for Chinese power.” However, China has proposed the Belt and Road Initiative spanning Asia, Africa, and Europe. The BRI includes infrastructure projects throughout these continents. This could help the Chinese broaden its economic influence overseas and regionally. However, there is backlash and issues associated with the BRI such as debt, canceled projects, etc.

     The Chinese military is known as the People’s Liberation Army. Kristoff states, “While most countries have been cutting military budgets over the last five years, China has been using its economic boom to finance a far-reaching buildup.” (Kristoff pg8). The economic boom is a source of finance for the Chinese military. China’s defense budget was $116.3B in 2013 to $224.8B in 2023. The spending as a share of GPD is 1.6%. The problem with Chinese defense spending is the lack of transparency. However, China has roughly 2,18500 active personnel and 510,000 reserve personnel as of 2023.  Today, China has ongoing military buildups in the South China Sea. In addition, China has around 350 nuclear warheads. China is the 3^rd most powerful country in terms of the military.

  India is way behind China in its economic and military trajectories. The reason is that its economy developed in the late 1990s. In addition, India has invested more in its military under Prime Minister Narendra Modi by purchasing weapons overseas.  However, India’s economy began to take off under the premiership of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee due to the economic reforms he implemented. As a result, the Indian economy continued to progress in the 21^st century until Covid 19 hit. The GDP growth rate for India in 1992 was 5.5%, the lowest compared to China.

   Under Prime Minister Vajpayee, the telecommunication sector and those producing raw materials such as aluminum were liberalized. However, the telecommunications sector was the most crucial sector being liberalized. In addition, he initiated two major infrastructure projects that advanced India’s economic growth. The first project was the Golden Quadrilateral which connected major cities in India. The next project was the Pradhanmantri Gramin Sadak Yojna which included all-weather roads for villages across India that weren’t connected.  

    According to the IMF, India’s GDP growth rate in 2000 was 4. This is lower than China’s growth rate because they 8.5 in 2000. However, when Former Finance Minister Manmohan Singh succeeded Vajpayee as Prime Minister, he inherited a perfect economy. Under his premiership, India’s GDP growth rate according to the IMF, was 7.8 in 2004. Nevertheless, India has not caught up to China regarding economic growth. The reason is that China had a growth rate of 10.1% in 2004. Unlike China, India has not established any new economic institutions nor played a role in the 2008 global financial crises or 1997 Asian Financial crises.

    India and China’s real GDP growth rates for both India and China fluctuated throughout the years.  For example, China’s growth rate went from 11.4 in 2005 to 9.4 in 2009 to 10.6 in 2010. However, India’s growth rate went from 9.3 in 2005 to 8.5 in 2009 to 10.3 in 2010. However, Narendra Modi, who later became Prime Minister of India in 2014, had a growth rate of 7.4, which would rise to 8 in 2015. The Covid 19 pandemic resulted in a -5.8 growth rate. Based on the evidence provided on the Chinese growth rate, they did not have a negative growth rate. On the other hand, India did impose lockdowns during the pandemic which affected the growth rate but was not as extreme as China.  

     “As for beating China, despite the Chinese economy’s slowdown, it is now about five times the size of India’s.” (Zakaria) Even with a Chinese economic slowdown, India can’t beat China due to its size.  In fact, India is investing in different areas such as infrastructure, contributing to its surging economy.  However, both countries had declining poverty rates. The reason is that the poverty rate in India went from 96.60% in 1993 to 83.30% in 2019. However, China had a significant decline in poverty because it went from 97.90% in 1993 to 24.70% in 2019.

    India’s army continued to modernize under the current Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In fact, India has the fourth most powerful country in terms of military power. However, after conducting numerous nuclear tests in one week, Vajpayee established India as a nuclear state. India has around 156 nuclear warheads. China has outnumbered India in the number of nuclear warheads. However, India outnumbered China in the number of overseas military bases because they have ten. India’s defense spending as a share of GDP is 2.4% in 2022.

   India has two military bases in Africa, one in Madagascar and the next in Mauritius. In Asia, it has one base in Bhutan and another in Tajikistan. The last military base is in Oman. However, China only has one base located in Djibouti. However, India has around 1, 445,000 active personnel and 1,155,000 reserve personnel. However, there are claims that India is building a military base on Agaléga island, which the Indians denied. China is expected to become a nuclear superpower because according to a news report, China is concentrating on speeding up its nuclear expansion. China may have 1500 nuclear warheads by 2035, which could challenge India.

    After lifting the Covid 19 lockdowns, both major powers are on the path to economic recovery.  China’s GDP growth rate is 5.2 in 2023 whereas India is around 6.3. After the end of Zero Covid, China’s economy is expected to go through a slow economic recovery. Their economy is still the 1^st largest economy in the world. India is expected to be the world’s 2^nd largest economy by 2030 displacing the United States. However, both countries have increased their military budgets in 2023. India has raised its budget to $72.6 billion whereas China grew its own to 1.55 trillion.

    In conclusion, this is why India and China are two rising powers in Asia due to their economic and military trajectories. Based on the evidence provided, China has surpassed India in terms of economic growth but right now, India has the lead in GDP growth rate. However, in terms of military trajectories, China is number one in the continent of Asia.

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